The Art Of Thinking Clearly

Author: Rolf Dobelli
Publisher: Harper Collins
ISBN: 0062359800
Size: 45.20 MB
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The Art Of Thinking Clearly from the Author: Rolf Dobelli. Have you ever . . . Invested time in something that, in hindsight, just wasn't worth it? Paid too much in an eBay auction? Continued to do something you knew was bad for you? Sold stocks too late, or too early? Taken credit for success, but blamed failure on external circumstances? Backed the wrong horse? These are examples of what the author calls cognitive biases, simple errors all of us make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices: whether in dealing with personal problems or business negotiations, trying to save money or earn profits, or merely working out what we really want in life—and strategizing the best way to get it. Already an international bestseller, The Art of Thinking Clearly distills cutting-edge research from behavioral economics, psychology, and neuroscience into a clever, practical guide for anyone who's ever wanted to be wiser and make better decisions. A novelist, thinker, and entrepreneur, Rolf Dobelli deftly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic hyperactivity—all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision making—at work, at home, every day. From why you shouldn't accept a free drink to why you should walk out of a movie you don't like, from why it's so hard to predict the future to why you shouldn't watch the news, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

The Art Of Thinking Clearly

Author: Rolf Dobelli
Publisher: Harper Collins
ISBN: 0062219707
Size: 57.81 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
View: 1283
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The Art Of Thinking Clearly from the Author: Rolf Dobelli. Have you ever . . . Invested time in something that, in hindsight, just wasn't worth it? Paid too much in an eBay auction? Continued to do something you knew was bad for you? Sold stocks too late, or too early? Taken credit for success, but blamed failure on external circumstances? Backed the wrong horse? These are examples of what the author calls cognitive biases, simple errors all of us make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices: whether in dealing with personal problems or business negotiations, trying to save money or earn profits, or merely working out what we really want in life—and strategizing the best way to get it. Already an international bestseller, The Art of Thinking Clearly distills cutting-edge research from behavioral economics, psychology, and neuroscience into a clever, practical guide for anyone who's ever wanted to be wiser and make better decisions. A novelist, thinker, and entrepreneur, Rolf Dobelli deftly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic hyperactivity—all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision making—at work, at home, every day. From why you shouldn't accept a free drink to why you should walk out of a movie you don't like, from why it's so hard to predict the future to why you shouldn't watch the news, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

The Art Of Thinking Clearly

Author: Rolf Dobelli
Publisher: Harper
ISBN: 9780062343963
Size: 40.61 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
View: 3991
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The Art Of Thinking Clearly from the Author: Rolf Dobelli. We are all guilty of cognitive biases, simple errors we make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices. The Art of Thinking Clearly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic activity—all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this book will change the way you think and transform your decision making. From why you should not accept a free drink to why you should walk out of a movie you don't like, from why it's so hard to predict the future to why you shouldn't watch the news, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

The Art Of Thinking Clearly

Author: Rolf Dobelli
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781444759563
Size: 55.26 MB
Format: PDF
View: 505
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The Art Of Thinking Clearly from the Author: Rolf Dobelli. THE SUNDAY TIMES BESTSELLER THE TIMES BESTSELLER GUARDIAN BESTSELLER AMAZON TOP TEN BESTSELLER THE SECRETS OF PERFECT DECISION-MAKING Have you ever... Invested time in something that, with hindsight, just wasn't worth it? Overpaid in an Ebay auction? Continued doing something you knew was bad for you? Sold stocks too late, or too early? Taken credit for success, but blamed failure on external circumstances? Backed the wrong horse? These are examples of cognitive biases, simple errors we all make in our day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to spot them, we can avoid them and make better choices - whether dealing with a personal problem or a business negotiation; trying to save money or make money; working out what we do or don't want in life, and how best to get it. Already an international bestseller, THE ART OF THINKING CLEARLY is essential reading for anyone with important decisions to make. It reveals, in 100 short chapters, the most common errors of judgement, and how to avoid them. Simple, clear and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision-making - at work, at home, every day.

The Art Of Thinking Clearly Better Thinking Better Decisions

Author: Rolf Dobelli
Publisher: Hachette UK
ISBN: 1444759558
Size: 76.35 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
View: 4631
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The Art Of Thinking Clearly Better Thinking Better Decisions from the Author: Rolf Dobelli. THE SUNDAY TIMES BESTSELLER THE TIMES BESTSELLER GUARDIAN BESTSELLER AMAZON TOP TEN BESTSELLER THE SECRETS OF PERFECT DECISION-MAKING Have you ever... Invested time in something that, with hindsight, just wasn't worth it? Overpaid in an Ebay auction? Continued doing something you knew was bad for you? Sold stocks too late, or too early? Taken credit for success, but blamed failure on external circumstances? Backed the wrong horse? These are examples of cognitive biases, simple errors we all make in our day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to spot them, we can avoid them and make better choices - whether dealing with a personal problem or a business negotiation; trying to save money or make money; working out what we do or don't want in life, and how best to get it. Already an international bestseller, THE ART OF THINKING CLEARLY is essential reading for anyone with important decisions to make. It reveals, in 100 short chapters, the most common errors of judgement, and how to avoid them. Simple, clear and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision-making - at work, at home, every day.

Five Ways Of Thinking Clearly

Author: Rolf Dobelli
Publisher: Hachette UK
ISBN: 1444752405
Size: 18.19 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
View: 3486
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Five Ways Of Thinking Clearly from the Author: Rolf Dobelli. Five examples of the most common errors of judgement, and how to avoid them, taken from THE ART OF THINKING CLEARLY, the international bestseller that is essential reading for anyone with important decisions to make. Simple, clear and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision-making - at work, at home, every day.

The Art Of Creative Thinking

Author: Rod Judkins
Publisher: Hachette UK
ISBN: 1444794477
Size: 56.78 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
View: 701
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The Art Of Creative Thinking from the Author: Rod Judkins. A scuba diving company faces bankruptcy because sharks have infested the area. Solution? Open the world's first extreme diving school. The Art of Creative Thinking reveals how we can transform ourselves, our businesses and our society through a deeper understanding of human creativity. Rod Judkins, of the world-famous St Martin's College of Art, has studied successful creative thinkers from every walk of life, throughout history. Drawing on an extraordinary range of reference points - from the Dada Manifesto to Nobel Prize Winning economists, from Andy Warhol's studio to Einstein's desk - he distils a lifetime's expertise into a succinct, surprising book that will inspire you to think more confidently and creatively. You'll realise why you should be happy when your train is cancelled; meet the most successful class in educational history (in which every single student won a Nobel prize); discover why graphic nudity during public speaking can be both a hindrance and surprisingly persuasive; and learn why, in the twenty-first century, it's technically illegal to be as good as Michelangelo. Be stubborn about compromise. Plan to have more accidents. Be mature enough to be childish. Contradict yourself more often. Discover the Art of Creative Thinking. *From the publishers of the international bestseller The Art of Thinking Clearly*

Thinking Fast And Slow

Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN: 1429969350
Size: 76.73 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
View: 5360
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Thinking Fast And Slow from the Author: Daniel Kahneman. Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In the international bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

Superforecasting

Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Size: 74.49 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
View: 608
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Superforecasting from the Author: Philip E. Tetlock. A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.