Progress Towards External Adjustment In The Euro Area Periphery And The Baltics

Author: Joong Shik Kang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498375847
Size: 76.37 MB
Format: PDF
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Progress Towards External Adjustment In The Euro Area Periphery And The Baltics from the Author: Joong Shik Kang. The euro area periphery countries and the Baltic countries, which had large current account deficits in the run-up to the crisis, needed adjustment of relative prices to achieve both internal and external balances. Thus far, tangible progress has been made through lower wages and/or higher productivity relative to trading partners (“internal devaluation”), which contributed to narrowing current account deficits and shifting output towards the tradables sector. While some early adjusters cut wages more rapidly followed by productivity improvement, others have only slowly improved productivity largely through labor shedding. This adjustment for most countries has come along with a substantial recession as the unit labor cost improvement has largely come from falling employment and much of the current account improvement from import compression. Going forward, these countries still need to generate growing tradables sector employment and to continue adjustment to prevent imbalances from returning as output gaps close.

Adjustment In Euro Area Deficit Countries Progress Challenges And Policies

Author: Mr. Thierry Tressel
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498362907
Size: 50.35 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Adjustment In Euro Area Deficit Countries Progress Challenges And Policies from the Author: Mr. Thierry Tressel. Imbalances within the euro area have been a defining feature of the crisis. This paper provides a critical analysis of the ongoing rebalancing of euro area “deficit economies” (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) that accumulated large current account deficits and external liability positions in the run-up to the crisis. It shows that relative price adjustments have been proceeding gradually. Real effective exchange rates have depreciated by 10-25 percent, driven largely by reductions in unit labor costs due to labor shedding. While exports have typically rebounded, subdued demand accounts for much of the reduction in current account deficits. Hence, the current account balance of the euro area as a whole has shifted into surplus. Internal rebalancing has come with subdued activity—notably very high unemployment in the deficit economies—and made continued adjustment more difficult. To advance rebalancing further, the paper emphasizes the need for: (1) macroeconomic policies that support demand and bring inflation in line with the ECB’s medium-term price stability objective; (2) continued EMU reforms (banking union) to ensure proper financial intermediation; and (3) structural reforms in product and labor markets to improve productivity and support the reallocation of resources to tradable sectors.

World Economic Outlook October 2017

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148432112X
Size: 35.67 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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World Economic Outlook October 2017 from the Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.. The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening. Global growth, which in 2016 was the weakest since the global financial crisis at 3.2 percent, is projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.7 percent in 2018. The growth forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 are 0.1 percentage point stronger compared with projections earlier this year. Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia—where growth outcomes in the first half of 2017 were better than expected—more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom. But the recovery is not complete: while the baseline outlook is strengthening, growth remains weak in many countries, and inflation is below target in most advanced economies. Commodity exporters, especially of fuel, are particularly hard hit as their adjustment to a sharp step down in foreign earnings continues. And while short-term risks are broadly balanced, medium-term risks are still tilted to the downside. The welcome cyclical pickup in global activity thus provides an ideal window of opportunity to tackle the key policy challenges—namely to boost potential output while ensuring its benefits are broadly shared, and to build resilience against downside risks. A renewed multilateral effort is also needed to tackle the common challenges of an integrated global economy.

Rebalancing In The Euro Area And Cyclicality Of Current Account Adjustments

Author: Mr. Thierry Tressel
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498333923
Size: 71.38 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Rebalancing In The Euro Area And Cyclicality Of Current Account Adjustments from the Author: Mr. Thierry Tressel. The paper examines progress with the external rebalancing of euro area deficit countries. Relative prices are adjusting at different pace across countries and with different compositions of wage cuts and labor shedding. There is so far limited evidence of resource re-allocation from non-tradable to tradable sectors, while improved export performance is still dependent on external demand from the rest of world. Current account adjustments have taken place, reflecting structural changes but also cyclical forces, suggesting that part of the improvements may unwind when cyclical conditions improve. Looking ahead, relying only on relative price adjustments (which adversely affects demand) to rebalance the euro area could prove very challenging. Structural reforms will play an important role in the reallocation of resources to the tradable sector and the associated relative price adjustment, while boosting non-price and price competitiveness.

Wirtschaftsstruktur Und Leistungsbilanz

Author: Philipp Ehmer
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 3658168765
Size: 68.79 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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Wirtschaftsstruktur Und Leistungsbilanz from the Author: Philipp Ehmer. Philipp Ehmer begründet und quantifiziert den Einfluss sektoraler Wirtschaftsstrukturen auf Leistungsbilanzen von Volkswirtschaften in der Eurozone. Er leitet den Zusammenhang zwischen den beiden Größen theoretisch her und bestätigt die Argumentation in einer empirischen Analyse. Nach seinen Ergebnissen trägt das Fehlen industrieller Kapazitäten zur Erwirtschaftung eines Leistungsbilanzdefizits bei. Volkswirtschaften in einer Währungsunion, in der solche Defizite nicht über Wechselkursabwertungen verhältnismäßig einfach abgebaut werden können, sollten ihre sektoralen Strukturen bezüglich ihrer Exportfähigkeit harmonisieren. Der Inhalt Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte und der Abbau von Defiziten Determinanten der Leistungsbilanz und der Einfluss sektoraler Wirtschaftsstrukturen in der Theorie Einfluss sektoraler Wirtschaftsstrukturen in der empirischen Analyse Betrachtung der Branchenebene Implikationen für optimale Währungsräume und die Eurozone Die Zielgruppen Dozierende und Studierende der Volkswirtschaftslehre mit Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft Praktiker im Finanzsektor und Mitarbeiter in Ministerien Der Autor Dr. Philipp Ehmer ist in der volkswirtschaftlichen Abteilung der größten nationalen Förderbank tätig und befasst sich primär mit Analysen der Eurozone. Er publiziert regelmäßig Beiträge zu konjunkturellen und strukturellen Fragestellungen zum Währungsraum insgesamt sowie zu einzelnen Mitgliedsländern.

Core Periphery Relations In The European Union

Author: José M. Magone
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317496612
Size: 14.47 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Core Periphery Relations In The European Union from the Author: José M. Magone. Successive Enlargements to the European Union membership have transformed it into an economically, politically and culturally heterogeneous body with distinct vulnerabilities in its multi-level governance. This book analyses core-periphery relations to highlight the growing cleavage, and potential conflict, between the core and peripheral member-states of the Union in the face of the devastating consequences of Eurozone crisis. Taking a comparative and theoretical approach and using a variety of case studies, it examines how the crisis has both exacerbated tensions in centre-periphery relations within and outside the Eurozone, and how the European Union’s economic and political status is declining globally. This text will be of key interest to students and scholars of European Union studies, European integration, political economy, public policy, and comparative politics.

Regional Economic Outlook May 2011

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1462369731
Size: 70.24 MB
Format: PDF
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Regional Economic Outlook May 2011 from the Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.. The May 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Europe anticipates that recovery in the region will solidify, with recoveries in advanced and emerging Europe likely to be mutually reinforcing. Advanced Europe continues to absorb most of emerging Europe's exports, while the role of emerging Europe as a market for advanced Europe will expand. Chapters discuss the outlook and policy priorities for advanced and emerging Europe, and analyze the role of financial integration in the buildup and resolution of imbalances within the euro area.