Progress Towards External Adjustment In The Euro Area Periphery And The Baltics

Author: Joong Shik Kang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498339026
Size: 16.73 MB
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Progress Towards External Adjustment In The Euro Area Periphery And The Baltics from the Author: Joong Shik Kang. The euro area periphery countries and the Baltic countries, which had large current account deficits in the run-up to the crisis, needed adjustment of relative prices to achieve both internal and external balances. Thus far, tangible progress has been made through lower wages and/or higher productivity relative to trading partners (“internal devaluation”), which contributed to narrowing current account deficits and shifting output towards the tradables sector. While some early adjusters cut wages more rapidly followed by productivity improvement, others have only slowly improved productivity largely through labor shedding. This adjustment for most countries has come along with a substantial recession as the unit labor cost improvement has largely come from falling employment and much of the current account improvement from import compression. Going forward, these countries still need to generate growing tradables sector employment and to continue adjustment to prevent imbalances from returning as output gaps close.

How To Fix The Euro

Author: Stephen Pickford
Publisher: Chatham House
ISBN: 9781784130138
Size: 56.85 MB
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How To Fix The Euro from the Author: Stephen Pickford. The global economic and financial crisis that started in 2007 exposed serious flaws in the euro's original design. This report examines why Europe's economic and monetary union was so badly affected by the crisis, and assesses whether further changes need to be made to the structure of economic governance that underpins it. A Chatham House, Elcano and AREL Report

In Search Of A New Equilibrium

Author: Paolo Canofari
Publisher: Edizioni Nuova Cultura
ISBN: 8868124556
Size: 35.36 MB
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In Search Of A New Equilibrium from the Author: Paolo Canofari. The book shows that the overcoming of the negative imbalances in the current accounts of the large majority of peripheral Member States in the euro area is mainly due to a recession-driven decrease in import, a monetary wage compression, and below average rates of inflation. This re-equilibrating process thus leads to short-term adjustments, in the sense that it is unable to structurally fill the competitive gaps accumulated inside the euro area during the first decade of its life (1999-2007), owing to the inefficient allocation of the financial flows coming from the European central countries and invested in the European peripheral countries. Contrary to the predictions of the standard macroeconomic models based on the “catching up” mechanism, these financial flows did not adequately foster the productivity of lagged Member States in the euro area. Our proposal is to replace the “invisible hand” of the market with the “visible hand” of a European policy project. We argue that an effective policy initiative would have to combine a programme of European public and private investments with “contractual arrangements” aimed at implementing crucial national reforms. This strategy might provide a short term positive demand shock as well as the long term strengthening of the structural competitiveness of the peripheral Member States without involving direct financial transfers but allowing an intergovernmental co-operation and a trust-building process under the control of the European institutions. Marcello Messori is Professor of Economics at the Department of Political Science, LUISS Guido Carli (Rome) and Director of the LUISS School of European Political Economy (SEP).

Okun S Law

Author: Laurence M. Ball
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475585748
Size: 20.47 MB
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Okun S Law from the Author: Laurence M. Ball. This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.

Adjustment In Euro Area Deficit Countries Progress Challenges And Policies

Author: Mr. Thierry Tressel
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498362907
Size: 55.83 MB
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Adjustment In Euro Area Deficit Countries Progress Challenges And Policies from the Author: Mr. Thierry Tressel. Imbalances within the euro area have been a defining feature of the crisis. This paper provides a critical analysis of the ongoing rebalancing of euro area “deficit economies” (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) that accumulated large current account deficits and external liability positions in the run-up to the crisis. It shows that relative price adjustments have been proceeding gradually. Real effective exchange rates have depreciated by 10-25 percent, driven largely by reductions in unit labor costs due to labor shedding. While exports have typically rebounded, subdued demand accounts for much of the reduction in current account deficits. Hence, the current account balance of the euro area as a whole has shifted into surplus. Internal rebalancing has come with subdued activity—notably very high unemployment in the deficit economies—and made continued adjustment more difficult. To advance rebalancing further, the paper emphasizes the need for: (1) macroeconomic policies that support demand and bring inflation in line with the ECB’s medium-term price stability objective; (2) continued EMU reforms (banking union) to ensure proper financial intermediation; and (3) structural reforms in product and labor markets to improve productivity and support the reallocation of resources to tradable sectors.

Sovereign Rating News And Financial Markets Spillovers

Author: Bertrand Candelon
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455276464
Size: 73.34 MB
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Sovereign Rating News And Financial Markets Spillovers from the Author: Bertrand Candelon. This paper examines the spillover effects of sovereign rating news on European financial markets during the period 2007-2010. Our main finding is that sovereign rating downgrades have statistically and economically significant spillover effects both across countries and financial markets. The sign and magnitude of the spillover effects depend both on the type of announcements, the source country experiencing the downgrade and the rating agency from which the announcements originates. However, we also find evidence that downgrades to near speculative grade ratings for relatively large economies such as Greece have a systematic spillover effects across Euro zone countries. Rating-based triggers used in banking regulation, CDS contracts, and investment mandates may help explain these results.

The Future Of The Euro

Author: Matthias Matthijs
Publisher: OUP Us
ISBN: 0190233249
Size: 80.61 MB
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The Future Of The Euro from the Author: Matthias Matthijs. "An attempt by political economists to analyze the fundamental causes of the euro crisis, determine how it can be fixed, and consider what likely futures lie ahead for the currency. The book makes three interrelated arguments that emphasize the primacy of political over economic factors. First, the 'euro problem' is discussed as the result of the single currency's fundamental lack of institutional embeddedness, insofar as its original design omitted three 'forgotten unions' alongside of monetary union: a financial and banking union, mutually supporting institutions of fiscal union and economic government, and a political union holding similar legitimacy to the nation-state. Second, the 'euro experience' shows how the euro's unfinished design led to economic divergence - quietly altering the existing distribution of economic and political power within Europe prior to the crisis - which in turn determined the EU's crisis response. The book highlights how the euro's four most important members - Germany, France, Italy and Spain - each changed once they adopted the euro, why the crisis affected them so differently, and how each has since struggled to live with the commitments the euro necessitates. Third, the book examines three possible 'euro futures' through the lens of the politics of its reluctant leader Germany; through the lens of the EU's capacity to 'move forward' through crises; and through the geopolitical lens of the international monetary system. The book concludes that any successful long-term solution to the euro's predicament needs to start with the political foundations of markets"--Publisher's description.

A Triumph Of Failed Ideas European Models Of Capitalism In The Crisis

Author: Steffen Lehndorff
Publisher: ETUI
ISBN: 2874522465
Size: 71.69 MB
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A Triumph Of Failed Ideas European Models Of Capitalism In The Crisis from the Author: Steffen Lehndorff. The current crisis in Europe is being labelled, in mainstream media and politics, as a ‘public debt crisis’. The present book draws a markedly different picture. What is happening now is rooted, in a variety of different ways, in the destabilisation of national models of capitalism due to the predominance of neoliberalism since the demise of the post-war ‘golden age’. Ten country analyses provide insights into national ways of coping – or failing to cope – with the ongoing crisis. They reveal the extent to which the respective socio-economic development models are unsustainable, either for the country in question, or for other countries. The bottom-line of the book is twofold. First, there will be no European reform agenda at all unless each country does its own homework. Second, and equally urgent, is a new European reform agenda without which alternative approaches in individual countries will inevitably be suffocated. This message, delivered by the country chapters, is underscored by more general chapters on the prospects of trade union policy in Europe and on current austerity policies and how they interact with the new approaches to economic governance at the EU level. These insights are aimed at providing a better understanding across borders at a time when European rhetoric is being used as a smokescreen for national egoism.

The Euro At Ten

Author: Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0881325139
Size: 34.14 MB
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The Euro At Ten from the Author: Jean Pisani-Ferry. Over the first ten years of its existence, the euro has proved to be more than a powerful symbol of collective identity. It has provided price stability to previously inflation-prone countries; it has offered a shelter against currency crises; and it has by and large been conducive to budgetary discipline. The eurozone has attracted five new members in addition to the initial eleven, and many countries in Europe wish to adopt it. The euro has also been successful internationally. Even though research presented in this volume confirms that it has not rivaled the dollar's world currency status, it has certainly become a strong regional currency in Europe and the Mediterranean region. Some countries in the region have de facto adopted it, several peg to it, and many have become at least partially euroized. However, the euro's impressive first decade is likely to be followed by a much more difficult period. The present financial crisis is posing at least two important challenges: real economic adjustment within the euro area and maintenance of fiscal and financial stability without a central government authority capable of taking appropriate financial and fiscal decisions in difficult times. The papers and remarks in this volume demonstrate that the euro has proved to be attractive as a fair weather currency for countries and investors well beyond its borders. But it remains to be seen whether it is equipped to also succeed as a stormy weather currency.

Changing Welfare States

Author: Anton Hemerijck
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199607605
Size: 24.47 MB
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Changing Welfare States from the Author: Anton Hemerijck. Changing Welfare States is is a major new examination of the wave of social reform that has swept across Europe over the past two decades. In a comparative fashion, it analyses reform trajectories and political destinations in an era of rapid socioeconomic restructuring, including the critical impact of the global financial crisis on welfare state futures. The book argues that the overall scope of social reform across the member states of the European Union varies widely. In some cases welfare state change has been accompanied by deep social conflicts, while in other instances unpopular social reforms received broad consent from opposition parties, trade unions and employer organizations. The analysis reveals trajectories of welfare reform in many countries that are more proactive and reconstructive than is often argued in academic research and the media. Alongside retrenchments, there have been deliberate attempts - often given impetus by intensified European (economic) integration - to rebuild social programs and institutions and thereby accommodate welfare policy repertoires to the new economic and social realities of the 21st century. Welfare state change is work in progress, leading to patchwork mixes of old and new policies and institutions, on the lookout, perhaps, for greater coherence. Unsurprisingly, that search process remains incomplete, resulting from the institutionally bounded and contingent adaptation to the challenges of economic globalization, fiscal austerity, family and gender change, adverse demography, and changing political cleavages.