Ireland

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Ireland from the Author: . This paper presents an Ex Post Evaluation of the 2010 Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement with Ireland. The Fund approved in December 2010 an exceptional access EFF arrangement for SDR 19.466 billion (2,321.8 percent of quota) in support of Ireland's home-grown program and as part of a broader financing package of Ireland and its European partners. The program focused on addressing the Irish banking crisis to break the adverse feedback loop between banks, the sovereign, and the real sector. It aimed to restore the banking system to health, including by establishing a smaller banking sector with high capital buffers and more stable funding sources; and to secure fiscal sustainability while limiting the near-term demand drag from fiscal consolidation. Large external financing was a key element of the crisis response. Program implementation was very strong. The program succeeded in stabilizing the banking sector and reducing its size, and fiscal developments were also broadly as anticipated. Domestic demand was, however, weaker than programmed and unemployment remained high, amid a very challenging external environment. Program success, including regaining market access at low interest rates, benefitted also from actions at the wider euro area level. The Ex Post Evaluation draws several lessons from Ireland's experience under the EFF. The main lessons emerge from what worked well: Strong country ownership, setting (and meeting) realistic and tailored targets were key for success, combined with effective communication and pro-active engagement. Addressing a banking crisis requires strong and credible actions upfront.? Some areas offer lessons for future program design: While the main pillars of the financial sector program were sound, more proactive and stronger supervisory interventions and other supportive steps could have strengthened banks' balance sheets and bank profitability and helped resolve problem loans; bank recapitalization should be limited to those with viable medium-term business strategies; unsecured and non-guaranteed creditors of failed banks should be bailed in, provided a strategy to ring fence potential systemic risks can be put in place; macro-financial linkages require careful attention and timely steps to limit sovereignbanking sector feedback loops; fiscal policy has to be mindful of debt sustainability but also of domestic demand conditions, and it needs a clear anchor. There are also lessons related to Fund policies: Ireland's EFF underscores the importance of addressing shortcomings of the systemic exemption clause in Criterion 2 of the exceptional access criteria; and it suggests the need to explore ways to secure stronger upfront commitments from monetary union authorities, when those are critical for program success.

Ireland Ex Post Evaluation Of Exceptional Access Under The 2010 Extended Arrangement

Author: International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 149830401X
Size: 48.56 MB
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Ireland Ex Post Evaluation Of Exceptional Access Under The 2010 Extended Arrangement from the Author: International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.. This paper presents an Ex Post Evaluation of the 2010 Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement with Ireland. The Fund approved in December 2010 an exceptional access EFF arrangement for SDR 19.466 billion (2,321.8 percent of quota) in support of Ireland’s home-grown program and as part of a broader financing package of Ireland and its European partners. The program focused on addressing the Irish banking crisis to break the adverse feedback loop between banks, the sovereign, and the real sector. It aimed to restore the banking system to health, including by establishing a smaller banking sector with high capital buffers and more stable funding sources; and to secure fiscal sustainability while limiting the near-term demand drag from fiscal consolidation. Large external financing was a key element of the crisis response. Program implementation was very strong. The program succeeded in stabilizing the banking sector and reducing its size, and fiscal developments were also broadly as anticipated. Domestic demand was, however, weaker than programmed and unemployment remained high, amid a very challenging external environment. Program success, including regaining market access at low interest rates, benefitted also from actions at the wider euro area level. The Ex Post Evaluation draws several lessons from Ireland’s experience under the EFF: ? The main lessons emerge from what worked well: Strong country ownership, setting (and meeting) realistic and tailored targets were key for success, combined with effective communication and pro-active engagement. Addressing a banking crisis requires strong and credible actions upfront. ? Some areas offer lessons for future program design: While the main pillars of the financial sector program were sound, more proactive and stronger supervisory interventions and other supportive steps could have strengthened banks’ balance sheets and bank profitability and helped resolve problem loans; bank recapitalization should be limited to those with viable medium-term business strategies; unsecured and non-guaranteed creditors of failed banks should be bailed in, provided a strategy to ring fence potential systemic risks can be put in place; macro-financial linkages require careful attention and timely steps to limit sovereignbanking sector feedback loops; fiscal policy has to be mindful of debt sustainability but also of domestic demand conditions, and it needs a clear anchor. ? There are also lessons related to Fund policies: Ireland’s EFF underscores the importance of addressing shortcomings of the systemic exemption clause in Criterion 2 of the exceptional access criteria; and it suggests the need to explore ways to secure stronger upfront commitments from monetary union authorities, when those are critical for program success.

Ireland Second Post Program Monitoring Discussions Staff Report And Press Release

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498330487
Size: 43.85 MB
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Ireland Second Post Program Monitoring Discussions Staff Report And Press Release from the Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.. Ireland’s recovery has strengthened yet political challenges to adjustment appear to have increased. The recovery is led by job creation and investment financed by retained earnings rather than lending. But uncertainties around medium-term prospects are wide given external risks and domestic crisis legacies. Sustaining recovery and rebuilding space for policy maneuver are therefore key policy priorities. However, weak polls for the governing coalition and adjustment fatigue—reflected in widespread protests against water charges—may constrain policy efforts, as seen in limited fiscal adjustment in 2015. A clear strategy to underpin reaching budget balance in the medium term is needed:Budget balance is a sound medium-term goal as it will put Ireland’s high public debt firmly on a downward path and enable fiscal policy to cushion the economy. As growth is likely to diminish over the medium term, steady structural adjustment of about ¾ percent of GDP annually is appropriate to avoid undue drag on growth.A strategy is needed to achieve the restraint envisaged by the authorities in the face of strong spending pressures. Such a strategy should include reforms to generate savings while protecting core services, flexibility in reallocating spending, and preparedness to implement new measures including on the revenue side if needed.Completing bank repairs and ensuring financial resilience are needed to ensure a revival of bank lending that supports a lasting recovery: Although bank capitalization, liquidity, and profitability are much improved, nonperforming loans (NPLs) remain exceptionally high. Priorities are further progress on durable resolution of distressed mortgages—supported by more timely repossession proceedings to motivate borrower engagement on restructures—and ensuring steady workouts or disposals of distressed commercial loans.Recent proposals by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) to strengthen regulation of mortgage loan origination are a welcome step to increase the resilience of banks and households to property cycles and help moderate such cycles in future.